ABI Research has scaled back its forecasts for the global uptake of WiMax, the wide area wireless network based on Wi-Fi protocols. The move follows another defection to Long Term Evolution (LTE), seen as the natural successor for 4G mobile phones.
The majority of global mobile operators around the world have not only voiced their support for LTE but are actively rolling it out, such as AT&T and Verizon in the US.
The decision last May of Russian service provider Yota to start deploying LTE triggered ABI to reconsider its views.
It does not spell total doom and gloom for WiMax though, with the predictions scaling back by around 15 per cent. That still leaves a user base of 12 million by the end of this year and 59 million people by 2015.
This is a positive forecast, ABI researcher Xavier Ortiz said, but he added: "WiMAX's growth has not been as early or as strong as many would have hoped several years ago."
Yota was certainly one of the main supporters of WiMax and experienced rapid subscriber growth. The company re-evaluated its direction when it saw a wider selection of client devices appearing to support LTE. Yota now has plans to roll out LTE in five cities across Russia this year.
Despite WiMax carrier migrations to LTE, chip makers are working on dual-standard processors. Ortiz sees this as part of the reason not to be too pessimistic about WiMax.
As far as the current market goes, he said last year, the lion's share of the WiMAX base station market was divided between four major vendors. Alvarion lead the way but was followed closely by Samsung. Nokia Siemens Networks acquired Motorola's wireless networks division and took third place. Huawei, ZTE and NEC hold the next positions and then the market becomes fragmented among smaller vendors.
In the UK, LTE roll-outs are delayed until the Government holds its spectrum auction. This could be delayed until 2013, predicted Ovum analyst Matthew Howlett last May.
