Global PC and tablet sales could face a major hurdle in 2025, according to new research from IDC, with the looming prospect of US tariffs stunting growth.
IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker shows global PC volume is now expected to reach 273 million in 2025 - slightly less than the previous forecast and only 3.7% up on last year.
The consultancy added it expects growth of less than 1% each year until 2029 for the traditional PC market, partly thanks to volume stabilization following Windows 11 migration.
And tablets aren't expected to fare much better, with shipments set to shrink 0.8% in 2025 to 143.3 million. IDC then expects a slight gradual decline, reaching 141.6 million units by the end of 2029, mostly due to consumer saturation.
IDC specifically highlighted the potential introduction of US tariffs on Chinese goods as a key hurdle moving forward. The tariffs were originally touted to stand at 10%, however, President Trump has since said the figure could reach 20%.
"Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs," said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC's worldwide mobile device trackers.
"However, the weakness amongst consumer demand is universal as macro issues persist. There are still some silver linings though: workstation volume should remain healthy, along with near-term tablet demand in China boosted by consumer subsidies."
The main driver for this year's gains will be the commercial sector, IDC noted, with commercial PC volume, including education PCs, growing 2% in 2024. This growth was driven by some large deals and modest Windows 11 migration volume.
Commercial and school renewal projects are expected to be the biggest driver for 2025, IDC noted, with firms largely continuing Windows 11 PC purchases - although budgets and other constraints will leave some instead going for in-place upgrades or paying for extended Windows 10 support.
AI PC gains will be the big talking point in 2025
While AI PC purchases have faced hurdles since their launch, IDC expects a rather stronger market to emerge by the end of this year, with most new PCs expected to be AI-capable by 2026.
Japan, IDC noted, is one of the few regions around the world to show strong growth.
"In light of so many challenges around the world, Japan is a much-needed source of double-digit growth this year. Enterprises there as well as SMBs have been quickly replacing PCs in advance of the Windows 10 End Of Service in October," said Bryan Ma, vice president of devices research at IDC.
"Growth rates naturally come down next year, but at least there is still a large education project to absorb some of the landing."
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